Predictive Oncology Inc. (POAI) Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2024 revenue was $0.35M and net loss per share was ($0.48); the company announced a formal process to explore strategic alternatives (including potential sale, asset sales, or licensing), and elected not to host a call this quarter .
Mix shift away from higher-margin tumor-specific 3D models drove revenue decline vs. prior year; G&A and S&M were materially lower on cost actions, with management reiterating a ~20% annualized cash burn reduction target from Q4’24 onward .
Liquidity declined to $3.1M cash and equivalents and $2.0M of stockholders’ equity at 9/30/24; the company raised $1.3M in gross proceeds via warrant exercises during Q3 .
Strategic alternatives process and biobank validation are the near-term stock catalysts; lack of formal guidance and no Q3 call temper visibility on near-term revenue ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Cost discipline: G&A fell by ~$0.76M YoY to $1.58M on headcount/severance reductions; sales & marketing also decreased by ~$0.09M YoY .
Cash burn initiatives: Management implemented cost savings intended to reduce run-rate cash used in operating activities by ~20% annually; reiterated the targeted burn reduction alongside strategic repositioning .
Asset validation and pipeline positioning: Company reported 100% concordance of drug response between fresh and cryopreserved tumor samples in its biobank, supporting long-term sample viability; management cites unique biobank and longitudinal data as a competitive advantage for AI/ML-driven discovery .

What Went Wrong

Top-line pressure: Q3 revenue fell to $0.35M (vs. $0.68M YoY) due to decreased sales of tumor-specific 3D cell culture models (Pittsburgh segment), only partially offset by increased STREAMWAY system sales (Eagan segment) .
Lower gross contribution: Gross profit was $0.15M vs. $0.58M YoY; mix shift and revenue softness weighed on gross profit dollars (Q3 gross margin implied ~43% vs. 85% in Q3’23) .
Liquidity compression: Cash fell to $3.1M at 9/30/24 (from $5.3M at 6/30/24 and $8.7M at 12/31/23); stockholders’ equity declined to $2.0M at 9/30/24 (from $8.3M at 12/31/23) .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and EPS vs. prior periods

Metric	Q3 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Revenue ($)	$715,056	$419,646	$278,722	$345,686
Gross Profit ($)	$608,116	$232,231	$125,754	$148,767
Gross Margin (%)	85%	~55%	~45%	~43% (calc. from Rev & GP)
Net (Loss) per Share (basic & diluted)	($0.78)	($1.04)	($0.68)	($0.48)

Notes: Q3 2024 also reported loss from continuing operations per share of ($0.36) .

Operating expenses (select items)

Metric	Q3 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
General & Administrative ($)	$2,583,574	$2,627,076	$2,137,189	$1,582,671
Operations Expense ($)	$842,579	$1,102,193	$893,391	$633,422
Sales & Marketing ($)	$336,043	$739,734	$284,421	$246,650
Total Operating Expenses ($)	N/A	$4,469,003	$3,315,001	$2,462,743

Balance sheet & cash KPIs

Metric	Q3 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($)	$11,915,048	$5,197,235	$5,331,770	$3,078,955
Stockholders’ Equity ($)	$11,651,355	$4,053,671	$4,093,971	$1,966,969
Net Cash Used in Op. Activities (YTD) ($)	$10,107,030 (nine months)	$3,416,021 (Q1)	$6,634,072 (six months)	$8,913,589 (nine months)

Estimate comparisons: S&P Global consensus data were unavailable via API for this request (rate limit), so revenue/EPS vs. estimates cannot be presented for Q3 2024 at this time.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY/Q4 2024	None provided	None provided	N/A
Margins	FY/Q4 2024	None provided	None provided	N/A
OpEx	FY/Q4 2024	Targeting ~20% annualized cash burn reduction run-rate from Q4’24	Reiterated ~20% annualized reduction; cost actions underway	Maintained
Other (Strategic Review)	N/A	Not applicable	Initiated formal strategic alternatives process	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2024)	Current Period (Q3 2024)	Trend
Biomarker discovery/AI	Expanded AI/ML for novel biomarker discovery (ovarian cancer) and promising UPMC study; ASCO presentation validation	Continued emphasis on biomarker opportunity and unique biobank; pursuing collaborations	Steady focus; advancing validation and BD
Cost savings/footprint	Consolidating Birmingham into Pittsburgh; ~20% cash burn reduction expected by Q4’24	Reiterated ~20% burn reduction; lower G&A and S&M realized	Execution progressing
Collaborations/BD	Fujifilm, FluGen, University of Michigan ACE program updates	“Ongoing discussions with several prospective partners”	Continuing pipeline building
Strategic alternatives	Not discussed in Q1/Q2	Formal process initiated; may include sale, asset sale, or licensing	New catalyst
Investor communications	Calls held in Q1/Q2	No Q3 call due to strategic review; plan to update as warranted	Reduced near-term visibility

Management Commentary

“We expanded our AI/ML offering to pursue the discovery of novel biomarkers capable of predicting patient outcomes and drug responses…we are uniquely positioned to play a meaningful role in the early discovery of new cancer therapeutics” — CEO Raymond Vennare .
“We have initiated a process to evaluate a broad range of strategic alternatives…together with the cost savings initiative…reduce our cash burn by around 20% annually” — CEO Raymond Vennare .
“Considering…strategic alternatives, the Company has elected not to host an investor conference call this quarter” .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3 2024 earnings call was held due to the ongoing strategic alternatives process .
In prior quarters, prepared remarks emphasized biomarker discovery, cost savings, and collaborations; no extensive Q&A disclosures were provided in the transcripts reviewed .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue to compare actuals vs. expectations, but the request was rate-limited and data were unavailable at this time. As a result, estimate comparisons and potential beat/miss assessments cannot be provided for Q3 2024 in this recap (Values intended from S&P Global; unavailable due to API limit).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strategic alternatives process is the primary near-term catalyst; outcomes may include sale of the company or assets/licensing, but timing and probability are uncertain .
Revenue volatility persists given mix shifts; pipeline of collaborations under discussion could improve visibility if converted to contracts .
Cost actions are taking hold—G&A, operations, and S&M are down YoY; management targets ~20% annualized burn reduction run-rate from Q4’24 .
Liquidity remains tight ($3.1M cash at 9/30/24), implying continued dependence on financings and/or strategic transactions to extend runway .
The company’s unique biobank and validated AI/ML platform remain core to its differentiation; further external validation and monetization (biomarker discovery, partnerships) are key to re-rating the equity story .
Trading: stock narrative likely driven by updates on strategic alternatives and partnership traction; lack of guidance and no Q3 call limit near-term estimate visibility .

Sources: Q3 2024 8‑K press release and attached financial statements ; Q2 2024 8‑K press release and transcript ; Q1 2024 8‑K press release and transcript ; Q3 2023 8‑K .